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-Chilly morning

-Sunny still

-Snow and sleet this weekend

Forecast

Sunny skies and cool weather will continue to end the week, with our warmest weather coming on Thursday. Highs should be in the low 50s with lots of sunshine.

Not much happens overnight as we drop to the upper 20s, with just a few extra clouds popping back up.

Friday brings another cooldown as the rain and snow start to move our way again. Highs dip to the mid 40s, with a few isolated rain and snow showers able to break through during the day. Most of this system is coming as we head into Saturday, so you should have all of your preparations done by Friday afternoon and evening.

Now let’s talk about the weekend storm!

The biggest forecast change is an increasing freezing rain threat and power outages risk for Sunday.

The track of the Low (center of the precip) means everything for how much/where snow and ice accumulates.

I hope I’m wrong, but I’m concerned for ice storm potential. As you probably know, freezing rain= #1 culprit for power outages due to the weight of frozen water.

WHAT HAS NOT CHANGED:
We have a 100% chance of a major winter storm. A long duration wintry event with heavy precip lasting about 24 hours. Slippery roads. Widespread cancellations. Every inch of Virginia is impacted.

WHAT WILL CHANGE:
the amounts of snow and ice. Are we 30 or 34 degrees overhead? That means everything whether we see 15” of snow and/or a major ice storm. If the temperature remains below freezing overhead, then it’s 10” to 15” for everyone.

TOO CLOSE:
Due to our proximity to the center of the Low (and the warm air it brings overhead), it’s an immensely difficult forecast for the ABC13 area.

HUGE SNOW TOTAL RANGE:
Over a 75 mile range, from north to south gradient, a snow total range from 1” to 3” for southern locations and 10” to 15” for northern spots can exist. Depends which side of 32 degrees you are overhead.

LESS SNOW:
As of now, my forecast differs from the current National Weather Service forecast, which has 8” to 14” of snow for much of Central and Southside Virginia. That’s not a criticism, just an observation. I think most locations get less snow.

WARMING OVERHEAD:
Yes, we are getting snow. But I think our snow totals will be cut down due to a thick layer of warm air that can form at 5,000 to 10,000 ft. Otherwise, we all get big time snow.

SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN:
Warmer air overhead causes snow to melt into rain. (The Low pulls up the warmth.) When melted snowflakes fall back into cold air, the water refreezes into sleet pellets. If the rain doesn’t refreeze in the air, then it freezes at ground and tree level.

Here’s what I can tell you with certainty and what’s too soon to know:

STARTS AS SNOW:
All local precip begins as snow. Snow begins Saturday late afternoon/near sunset/or just after sunset. The heaviest snow falls Saturday night and Sunday morning.

WINTER MESS
due to the Low having more of a northward track, the wintry mess of sleet and freezing rain will move into Virginia on Sunday morning. Snow changes to sleet then freezing rain as the center of the Low approaches.

NORTHWARD SHIFT:
Compared to yesterday, the Low’s expected track has shifted about 100 miles north. We will see additional changes Thursday and Friday, but the shifts are probably not as large.

HEAVY SNOW NORTH:
Northern Virginia is likely buried in heavy snow. 10” to 15” totals over a big swath 100 to 200 miles north of the Low’s center. That swath looks to be across Northern Virginia.

BELOW FREEZING:
Temperatures will remain below freezing (at ground level) all day Saturday and Sunday.

If you follow my page, you know my goal is to give you an honest assessment. Unfortunately, a significant ice storm is a very real threat for all of Central and Southside Virginia. The ice storm threat also extends into North Carolina.

If I were drawing a snow total map now:

1” to 3” for Southside

4” to 8” for Central Virginia and SW Virginia including Lynchburg, Farmville, Bedford and Roanoke,

Totals over 10” can occur Nelson, Lexington, Hot Springs, Charlottesville.

Then.. add heavy sleet and freezing rain atop the snow. The snow depth would shrink as the ice compresses.

This is not a high confidence snow forecast yet regarding the amounts. ,There’s no purpose in drawing snow maps more than 2 days out.

SUMMARY:

Chance of Winter Storm: 100%
Chance of icy roads: 100%
Starts: Saturday late afternoon evening
Ends: Sunday night.
Precip types: snow, then sleet, then freezing rain.
Power outage risk= moderate to high.
School closings on Monday= highly likely. I think some schools will be out all week.
Little to no melting occurs Monday and Tuesday.

That’s where we stand for now.

I’ll show my first county by county hand drawn snow map on Thursday’s 5pm news.

More updates to come. I hope you find these details useful. – George & Thomas