In Russia’s shadow: The Baltics wait for Europe’s strategic new railway

The Baltic states have decided to split the project into two phases. The first, costing €15bn, will have a single instead of double track laid by 2030 and focus on the most important train stops.

The second track and additional train stations are to be completed as part of a second phase with no specific completion date yet.

The soaring costs have prompted the states to scale back some of their ambitions.

“We can further scale back the scope of phase one, for example by connecting Riga airport at a later stage,” said Andris Kulbergs, who chairs a Latvian parliamentary committee investigating the project.

As billions of euros for the first phase are yet to be secured, that might be necessary.

Estonia’s national auditor Janar Holm believes several more years of delays are likely: “We have to find the funds to build this railway now or it’ll be even more expensive.”

The country’s infrastructure minister, Vladimir Svet, insisted “we are decreasing the budget as much as possible, we’ve rationalised the public procurement process and, if necessary, we’ll take on a loan.”

“If we want to preserve our culture and feel secure about our freedom, there is no other way than being in a strong EU, Nato and international community that supports international law,” he added.

For the three Baltic states that broke free of the Soviet Union to join the EU and Nato, Rail Baltica could serve as a lifeline – if it manages to stay on track.