How the Ukraine War could come to an end in 2025

In the absence of agreement on Ukraine’s long term future, its allies are doing what they can to bolster its defences.

In December, Nato’s secretary general, Mark Rutte, said “everything” was being looked at, including the supply of additional air defence systems, in part to protect the country’s battered energy infrastructure from a renewed wave of coordinated Russian missile and drone attacks.

With Ukraine continuing to experience severe shortages of manpower, the UK Defence Secretary John Healey said the government might be willing to send British troops to Ukraine to help with training.

For its part, the departing Biden administration seems determined to deliver as much congressionally approved military assistance as it can to Ukraine before leaving office, although reports suggest it may run out of time to send everything.

On 21 December it was reported that Trump would continue to supply military aid to Ukraine, but would demand that NATO members dramatically increase their defence spending.

Kyiv’s allies have also continued to ratchet up sanctions on Moscow, in the hope that Russia’s war-time economy, which has proved stubbornly resilient, may finally break.

“There’s been deep frustration that sanctions haven’t just shattered the Russian economy beyond repair,” a US congressional source said, on condition of anonymity.

After multiple rounds of sanctions (fifteen from the EU alone), government officials have grown wary of predicting their successful impact.

But recent indicators are increasingly alarming for the Kremlin. With interest rates at 23%, inflation running above 9%, a falling rouble and growth expected to slow dramatically in 2025, the strains on Russia’s economy have rarely seemed more acute.

Putin is putting on a brave face. “The sanctions are having an effect,” he said during his end of year news conference, “but they are not of key importance.”

Along with Russia’s staggering losses on the battlefield – western officials estimate that Moscow is losing an average of 1,500 men, killed and wounded, every day – the cost of this war could yet drive Putin to the negotiating table.

But how much more territory will Ukraine have lost – and how many more people will have been killed – by the time that point is reached?

Top picture credit: Getty Images