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How important is Scotland in deciding this election?

Four recent polls of Westminster voting intention suggest Scottish Labour now has a lead of around five percentage points over the SNP, according to Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University.

Sir John says if this were to be replicated on polling day in a general election it could translate into 30 Scottish seats for Labour and 16 for the SNP.

So what issues are people in Scotland considering as they make up their minds?

Aside from the economy, Scottish voters tell pollsters they care most about the health service, housing and education, all three of which are the responsibility of the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh, not the UK Parliament in London.

That does not mean they are irrelevant in this election though. The Scottish government decides how to spend its budget but the overall amount it has available to spend is largely determined by Westminster.

Mr Swinney is hardly the only politician in these islands struggling to find a way to boost the economy and improve public services.

In fact, polls suggest Mr Sunak’s Conservatives may be facing an even steeper mountain in this campaign.

The Tories have been around 20 points adrift of Labour in the polls for much of the past year.

With the SNP, says Sir Keir, voters can send a message to Westminster but with Labour “Scotland can send a government.”

Mr Swinney retorts that there is now little difference between the two main UK parties.

“Keir Starmer now supports Brexit, whatever the cost to Scotland,” he said, noting that the UK had left the European Union despite the opposition of a majority of voters in Scotland.


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