How could global turmoil affect the election in Scotland?

The second big change since the last general election happened an hour before midnight on 31 January 2020.

That was the moment the UK formally left the European Union, 47 years after joining its predecessor trading bloc, the European Economic Community (EEC).

In a 2016 referendum on membership, Scotland and Northern Ireland voted by wide margins to remain in the EU while more populous England, along with Wales, voted narrowly to leave, setting the entire UK on a course for exit.

The Office for Budget Responsibility, external, a UK government body which provides independent economic analysis and forecasts, estimates that the UK’s departure will, in the long run, cut both imports and exports by 15% and reduce productivity (output per worker) by 4%.

The Scottish government says, external that “equates to £3bn in lost public revenues for Scotland, each and every year.”

The Conservative UK government says, external Brexit frees up the country to strike its own trade deals, take back control of its laws, and set its own immigration limits.

Both the Conservatives and Labour say they have no intention of revisiting the result of the referendum.

In their manifesto, the Liberal Democrats vow to “fix the UK’s broken relationship with Europe”. That includes a pledge to seek to rejoin the Single Market, with a “longer-term objective” of rejoining the EU.

The SNP say Scotland should rejoin the EU as an independent nation, a proposal which is itself the subject of intense debate.

For now, the topic of immigration is another clear dividing line between, on the one hand the SNP and the Liberal Democrats, who both favour a more liberal approach, and, on the other, Labour and the Tories, who are more restrictive,

On Friday’s BBC election debate, the SNP’s Westminster leader Stephen Flynn argued that migration was essential for Scottish public services, businesses, and economic growth.

Mr Flynn pointed to last month’s release of census data, external which revealed that “without migration, Scotland’s population would have decreased,” with fewer workers to support an ageing population.

Critics of the current level of immigration into the UK as too high say it has put intolerable strain on public services, external such as housing, schools and healthcare.

The Conservatives say they will cut immigration, which has risen sharply since the last election, and will press ahead with attempts to send some asylum seekers to Rwanda, to try to deter people from making the dangerous crossing of the English Channel in small boats.

Labour says it will reduce the need for immigration by improving the training of British workers.