Hezbollah pager explosions highlight shadow war

A report in the Wall Street Journal said that just before the attack, Shukr received a message asking him to go to his seventh floor apartment, where he was easier to hit.

Hezbollah furiously denied the report, but as yesterday’s dramatic events proved, Hezbollah’s networks – their supply chains and communications – appear to be badly compromised.

The Iranian-backed group is, of course, doing its utmost to fight back, firing rockets across Israel’s northern border and, occasionally, trying its own covert operations.

On Tuesday morning, Israel said it had foiled an attempt to assassinate a former Israeli security official using a remotely-activated explosive device.

Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate for Tuesday’s mass attack. Given the physical mutilation wrought on huge numbers of its members and the militia’s urgent need to identify and deal with this catastrophic security breach, revenge may have to wait – but it is surely bound to come.

Which brings us to a fundamental question: what, if anything, has really changed? Israel’s war with Hezbollah, overt and covert, goes on.

Israel’s newly declared war aim – bringing displaced citizens back to evacuated communities along the northern border – has not been advanced.

Despite a lot of heated speculation here in Israel, the military does not appear to be poised to invade southern Lebanon.

That may eventually happen. Israelis are thoroughly fed up with almost a year of insecurity in the north.

But Israel is still fighting in Gaza – the death of four more soldiers was announced on Tuesday – and the prospect of another major ground operation is not universally welcome.

An opinion poll by Channel 13 News found that 52% of Israelis favoured a “broad scale war in Lebanon,” with 30% against and 18% undecided.

For all Israel’s displays of tactical ingenuity, when it comes to dealing with Hezbollah, it’s hard to see exactly where this simmering conflict is heading next.