General election 2024: South Antrim constituency profile

The DUP’s Paul Girvan may have some benefit from incumbency.

He retained South Antrim in the last general election in 2019 with more than 15,000 votes – a share of more than 35%.

The Ulster Unionists came second with Danny Kinahan receiving more than 12,000 votes and 29%.

Moving Robin Swann to South Antrim is a bold strategy for the UUP, which is hoping to bank on his popularity as health minister during the Covid-19 pandemic.

But in 2019, both parties saw their vote share decline slightly compared to the previous Westminster poll in 2017.

In contrast, the Alliance Party’s share more than doubled to over 19%.

Their candidate last time, Stormont assembly member John Blair, is standing again. Will the so-called “Alliance surge” of 2019 continue?

Sinn Féin has also seen its vote increase in recent assembly and council elections in the area.

Its local assembly member Declan Kearney, who came fourth in 2019, will be hoping to build upon recent results.

Meanwhile the larger unionist parties also face a challenge from Mel Lucas of Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) and its campaign against post-Brexit trade checks.

Voters get only one choice in a general election, unlike Stormont assembly polls where candidates can be ranked in order of preference.

So that means for candidates on the ballot this time, convincing voters you can win is crucial to emerging on top.

Otherwise, voters may tactically coalesce behind other contenders.