General Election 2024: Belfast East constituency profile

Where do we start ?

Firstly we now have more candidates in the race with the potential for votes to be split.

Back in 2019, only three names appeared on the ballot paper, Carl McClean from the Ulster Unionists was the third.

This time there are seven candidates in East Belfast and while only two have a realistic chance of winning the others can shape the result.

When the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) last fielded a candidate in 2010 the then DUP leader Peter Robinson lost his seat.

Could the current leader face a similar fate if the unionist vote is split again ?

Equally, might the Alliance vote suffer with the Ulster Unionists, Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) and Green party in the race ?

The backdrop to the election is also very different.

Back in 2019, the DUP was blamed along with Sinn Féin for the lack of a functioning government at Stormont and as result its overall vote dropped.

It also played into the Alliance message of a dysfunctional government which needed to be reformed.

That is a much harder message to sell now with the Assembly up and running.

But perhaps the biggest boost for Alliance in 2019 came from the anti-Brexit bounce when pro-remain voters rolled in behind Ms Long as she tried to oust a sitting Brexit-supporting DUP MP.