El Niño ‘supersized’ as countries race to prepare for extreme weather, UN warns

The world has entered a “danger zone of extreme weather” as the impacts of El Niño start to be felt globally, UN head António Guterres has warned.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has released the latest data on the natural weather phenomenon showing it could be the strongest for more than 70 years and last until at least February 2027.

El Niño changes weather patterns around the world, pushing some regions into drought whilst others experience stronger typhoons and flooding.

Forecasters also say El Niño will boost temperatures in some places, coming on top of rising heat globally from human-induced climate change.

“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up,” Guterres said.

The BBC spoke with governments and scientists about the measures being taken globally to reduce the risk of deaths, displacement and environmental damage. Early warning systems have been strengthened and deployment of pre-emptive medical assistance, but the strength of this particular event has raised serious concerns particularly for vulnerable groups.

The WMO – a UN agency – said it has undertaken a “major mobilisation” to try to circulate its forecasts of potential extreme weather events, linked to El Niño, to as many communities as possible.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned: “El Niño has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world.”

El Niño is a natural weather phenomenon that develops in the Pacific Ocean and is linked to a change in wind patterns. It allows warm water to spread eastwards and releases heat into the atmosphere.

Sea temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific have risen sharply in recent months – a clear sign of a strengthening El Niño.

In the Pacific’s key monitoring region, surface temperatures have been well over 2C above average in recent weeks, putting it on track to be declared a “very strong” event.

But it is expected to surpass even that marker. Monthly sea surface temperatures could get close to 4C above average, forecasts suggest.

This would make it the strongest El Niño since at least 1950, by potentially a large margin.