Democrats look towards Kamala Harris – but could she beat Trump?

Ms Harris, the child of an Indian mother and Jamaican father, performs better in surveys than Mr Biden with black, Latino and young voters – critical constituencies that allies say she could energise as the nominee.

But whether she would actually boost turnout among younger voters of colour is an open question. “This is just a wait and see moment,” the pollster added.

Some in the party also question whether Ms Harris’ reputation as a progressive West Coast Democrat risks losing the union and blue-collar voters in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin that Mr Biden narrowly won in 2020 and which both parties need to secure a win in November.

Should she take over the ticket, some Democrats have suggested pairing Ms Harris with Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania or Governor Roy Cooper of North Caroline as the vice-presidential candidate to capture centrist voters in Midwestern states.

Given the ages of Joe Biden and Donald Trump, voters are paying far more attention to the VP candidate of both parties in this election cycle, said Celinda Lake, a veteran Democratic pollster who worked for the 2020 Biden campaign.

On the Republican side, Mr Trump has yet to announce his running mate, although many speculate he’ll pick North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum or Ohio Senator JD Vance. Either of those men would provide a “vivid contrast” to Ms Harris, Ms Lake added.

Still, there are deep concerns about her strength as a presidential candidate that date back to her unsuccesful 2020 bid for the Democratic nomination, in which she landed blows on Mr Biden in an early debate but then crashed out before the first caucuses in Iowa.

Critics said she struggled to define herself as a candidate, a sentiment that has lingered throughout her tenure as vice-president. She had a shaky start in the White House, marked by high-profile interview slip-ups, low approval ratings and staff turnover.

She was tasked with overseeing the administration’s strategy to reduce migration over the US southern border, which increased to record levels over the last three years and remains a major vulnerability for Democrats. Republicans cast her as an ineffective “border czar,” a criticism already being resurrected.

Those early stumbles led Ms Harris to be more cautious about her public appearances and many voters have perceived her as absent. “People need to know more about her, what economic issues she is strong on and they need to be reminded of the role she’s played,” Ms Lake said.

Over the last year, Ms Harris has found stable footing as the administration’s leading voice on abortion rights, an issue that proved successful for Democrats during the 2022 midterm elections and one the party hopes will win back more voters in November.

As a former prosecutor who handled sexual violence cases, Ms Harris has invoked personal stories of working with women who miscarried in the bathroom or were turned away at hospitals as she’s tried to mobilise voters around the issue.

On the campaign trail, she has also sought to capitalise on other issues that resonate with young voters, including student debt forgiveness, climate change and gun violence. The White House, too, has made a concerted effort to promote her more forcefully.

Allies point to the national scrutiny she has faced over the last four years as proof that she can withstand the rigours of a presidential election as the Democratic nominee. And they contend that she would put the prosecutorial skills that vaulted her to the national stage as a US senator to good use in a debate against Trump.

Still, she faces an uphill battle on changing longstanding voter scepticism towards her. She continues to be dogged by low approval ratings, which hover around 37% in polling averages compiled by FiveThirtyEight – a level similar to both Mr Biden and Trump.

And unless Mr Biden caves to the mounting party pressure to step down, grassroots Democratic supporters themselves seem resigned to supporting the current ticket.