Declan Rice free-kicks: Unstoppable or should they have been stopped?

Via Opta’s expected goals (xG) model, Rice’s first free-kick had an xG of 0.037 (3.7%) and his second an xG of 0.063 (6.3%).

The probability of scoring both comes in at a combined total of 0.23%. Or put in layman’s terms, a one-in-435 chance.

But which one was better?

BBC pundit Green, who was at the Emirates for CBS, said it was the second.

“There is a series of things that happen. First of all, it is Courtois in goal,” said Green.

“Secondly, when someone shoots at what is called ‘the goalkeeper’s side’ (the part of the goal not covered by the wall) like Rice did and they score, then people go ‘oh, it’s the goalkeeper’s side’.

“Well, this time Rice does that against the best goalkeeper in the world, and at no point has anyone mentioned that Courtois should get anywhere near it.

“It is hard to think of how a right-footed player could have placed it any better, and with any more power than that. It was the definition of a perfect free-kick.

“My old goalkeeper coach at West Ham, Ludek Miklosko, used to call that top corner of the goal next to the stanchion ‘the spiders’ web’. When I worked on an England game with John Murray for BBC Radio 5 Live last month, he said that in Brazil they call it ‘where the owls sleep’. Every country has a different saying for it – we know it as ‘top bins’.”