Canada celebrates birthday as Mark Carney battles to keep it intact

Canadians are gathering across the country to celebrate Canada Day, commemorating the birth of the nation 159 years ago. But beneath the festivities, twin challenges are testing the country’s unity.

In the western province of Alberta, a restive separatist movement has gained momentum, and in a few months, Albertans will vote in a referendum on provincial sovereignty.

In Quebec, the sovereigntist Parti Quebecois is currently ahead in the polls for the upcoming provincial election. The party has pledged to hold a third referendum on independence by 2030 if it wins.

“It’s a year of pressures on Canadian national unity,” said André Lecours, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa.

Prime Minister Mark Carney finds himself at the centre of those tensions, seeking to balance competing interests of the provinces while holding the country together.

Canada is “worth fighting for”, he said last month, promising to campaign for a united country in the months ahead.

On Wednesday, Carney will travel to Edmonton, his hometown, in a symbolic visit on the country’s birthday, where he is expected to make the case for national unity.

Historian JDM Stewart says Canada’s vast geography and strong regional identities pose unique challenges.

“Because it’s so big, and because it is so regional, it does create tensions that have been with us since the beginning, and we still wrestle with them today,” he says.

Quebec, a majority French-speaking province, fiercely protects its identity and its culture as a distinct society, and has twice held referenda – in 1980 and 1995 – on whether to seek independence.

Opinion polls suggest support for independence sits around 30%, roughly unchanged over the last few years.

Even so, the Parti Quebecois has enjoyed an early surge ahead of the provinicial election on 5 October. Its leader has unveiled a more than 500-page blueprint for an independent Quebec and has pledged to hold a third referendum.

Alberta faces a different debate.

Following a citizens-led push, Albertans will vote on 19 October to decide whether they want to remain part of Canada or hold a binding vote on separation at a later date.

Polling suggests support for the “leave” side stands at between 25% and 30%

Many backers of the movement argue the energy-rich province has long been overlooked by decision-makers in Ottawa, the national capital, and that federal environmental policies have hindered Alberta’s ability to build pipelines and develop its natural resources.

But Professor Lecours argues that this separatist push is different from the Western alienation that has long been felt in the region, calling the current drive an “outgrowth” of right-wing populism.

“All these organisations in Alberta, not coincidentally, they all emerged during the pandemic,” he said.

He also noted that the movement “is occurring in the complete absence of any elected representative clearly and openly supporting independence”.

Carney, who served as the governor of the Bank of England during Brexit, as the UK was debating leaving the EU, said he had witnessed the dangers of secessionist movements.

He said what’s happening in Alberta “is very reminiscent”.

“I saw first-hand what gets sold in these referenda. That everything is going to be easy. That you can keep your passport, that you can keep your currency. That you can stay in the country and leave it at the same time.”

He said such arguments risk undermining Canada’s future “right at the time when we’re seen as one of the most trustworthy, reliable desirable countries to do business with – and we shouldn’t mess that up”.