Australia wants to become a renewable energy superpower. Can it?

“This government has continued to approve new gas and coal projects – it’s flown to Japan, India, Korea, and Vietnam to secure long-term markets for gas and coal.

“If we really wanted to be a green energy superpower, we wouldn’t be relentlessly pursuing customers for our fossil fuels,” she says.

One of the nation’s leading climate scientists agrees.

“There is a very deep contradiction at the heart of the two policies,” says Prof Bill Hare, chief executive of Climate Analytics and author of numerous UN climate change reports.

“The Future Made in Australia [plan] is playing second fiddle to the government’s gas strategy.”

To understand how, Ms Hemming says you need to “follow the money”.

According to an analysis from her thinktank, last year alone, state and federal governments spent A$14.5bn subsidising fossil fuel use across Australia, and that sum is only expected to balloon, according to budget estimates.

By contrast, she says the A$13.7bn set aside to process critical minerals and incubate Australia’s nascent green hydrogen industry “isn’t real money”.

That’s because it will take the form of tax breaks over the course of a decade, which can only be cashed in, external on production starting from 2027 – a model which policymakers say will ensure taxpayers’ money is not wasted.

But all the green hydrogen projects – many of which are being led by the nation’s largest mining and energy companies – are yet to be built. And the incentives could be scrapped before they get off the ground if there’s a change in government.

“It’s like me having a healthy eating and junk food policy running at the same time in my home and telling my kids, ‘You can have $10 a week now if you keep eating junk food’,” says Ms Hemming.

“Or, ‘I’ll give you $2 in 2027 if you switch to broccoli’. What do you think they are going to prioritise?”

Some energy experts have also cast doubt over the business rationale behind green hydrogen – given the industry is still in its infancy and riddled with unknowns.

Others worry it could divert investment away from the renewable power sources that have already proven their worth, resulting in delayed climate action.

But Mr Grimes says that green hydrogen will play an essential role in “stripping emissions” out of Australia’s carbon-intensive mining sector – as companies look for cheap green sources of fuel to continue powering their operations.

And bigger picture, he argues that the government’s new green investments should be assessed as “a milestone first step” rather than an end point.

“The government knows that if it doesn’t pivot beyond its exports of coal, gas and iron ore soon, Australia risks becoming the Kodak economy of the future: a big deal one day and completely irrelevant the next.”