The Army is shrinking – but would Labour make it any bigger?

While Labour may be broadly right on the shrinking size of the Army, it is not clear what they would do if they won power.

They have not pledged to increase the number of soldiers. All they’ve said is that they would hold a strategic defence review after the election.

And it’s not clear what this review would recommend in terms of numbers.

Moreover, Labour’s commitment to keep the UK’s Trident nuclear submarine deterrent would limit their financial ability to boost military personnel numbers.

Trident’s running costs are estimated, external to be about £3bn a year – and that sum does not include the capital costs of building four new submarines, which Sir Keir also says he will do.

That £3bn accounts for about 5% of the entire defence budget, which will be £55.6bn, external in 2024-25 – making up about 2% of GDP, the annual value of all the UK economy’s goods and services.

Labour says they would raise total defence spending to 2.5% of GDP “as soon as resources allow”.

This is more vague than the Conservatives, who have pledged to hit this spending target by 2030 (though claims they could largely pay for this by cutting the number of civil servants back to pre-pandemic levels look questionable).