Why Donald Trump is on the warpath against Islamic State in Somalia

A growing number of foreign fighters are joining the group, enhancing its strength in terms of numbers and expertise.

A major source of IS-Somalia recruits are thought to be Ethiopian migrants, who gather in Puntland’s port city of Bosaso in the hope of a sea crossing to a better life abroad.

IS offers them better pay than they would earn in the Gulf states and experts say that some of the group’s senior commanders are Ethiopian.

“We assess that IS-Somalia is 80% or more foreign fighters, mostly from North Africa, Ethiopia, Tanzania and the Middle East, in that order,” says Mr Mubarak.

He estimates the group is about 1,000-strong; UN monitors put it at around 600 to 700.

Last October, the head of the US Africa Command, Michael Langley, said he thought IS had grown in northern Somalia by about “two-fold” in a year.

The group staged one of its most sophisticated ever attacks in December, hitting a military base in Puntland’s Bari region.

The group released a statement saying not a single Somali was involved. The 12 attackers came from seven countries – Tanzania, Algeria, Morocco, Libya, Tunisia, Yemen and Ethiopia.

The movement has also become more effective at raising money.

The US, UN and Somalia experts say a key part of IS’s financial infrastructure – the al-Karrar office – is based in Puntland, disbursing funds and expertise to other branches of the group in Africa and beyond.

The US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) said IS-Somalia had raised nearly $2m in the first half of 2022 by taxing local businesses, imports, nomads and farmers.

If Puntland’s forces are to succeed in driving out the militants, air support will prove invaluable.

Shortly after the US strike, Puntland police said the head of IS-Somalia’s assassination squad, Abdirahman Shirwa Aw-Said, had surrendered.

But experts say such strikes will need to be consistent to hunt down existing IS cells in Somalia and stop others mushrooming.

It is unclear whether the US and its unpredictable leader have the appetite to keep bombing Somalia’s north-eastern mountains.

Mary Harper has written two books about Somalia, including Everything You Have Told Me Is True, a look at life under al-Shabab.