Rachel Reeves’ Tory manifesto mortgage claim ‘very speculative’, warns Full Fact | Politics News

A claim made by Rachel Reeves that the Tory manifesto would increase mortgages by over £4,000 is “very speculative” and based on “multiple assumptions”, a leading charity has said.

Full Fact, which assesses claims made by politicians for their accuracy, said it was “unclear” how Labour had come to their conclusions about Rishi Sunak’s manifesto “commitments” and how they might impact people’s mortgages.

The shadow chancellor used a press conference after the Conservative manifesto launch to criticise the prime minister’s plans.

She argued that although Mr Sunak had claimed to be “the antidote” to Liz Truss, he was instead “cosplaying Liz Truss by again doing what the Conservatives did in that mini-budget with £71bn of unfunded commitments”.

She went on: “They know the numbers don’t add up. The money is not there and it will mean £4,800 more on your mortgage.

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“You will see something very different when we publish our manifesto on Thursday – a fully costed, fully funded, credible plan.”

The shadow chancellor’s claim came after she accused the prime minister of “lying” for suggesting that Labour’s tax plans would cost families £2,000 – a figure that has been called into question by experts and the Treasury’s chief civil servant, who said the Conservative assessment “should not be presented as having been produced by the civil service”.

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A spokesperson for Full Fact told Sky News: “We are working on a full fact check of Labour’s £4,800 mortgage figure (and the underlying claim about the Conservatives having £71bn of ‘unfunded promises’) currently, and expect to publish more detailed analysis shortly.

“However the figure appears very speculative, and relies on multiple assumptions.

“It’s unclear how accurate the £71bn calculation is – we’re crunching the numbers now.

“But even if it were accurate, Labour’s assumption that the gap would all be filled with extra borrowing is a significant one.

“And we don’t yet know the full list of assumptions Labour has made in calculating what extra borrowing could mean for interest rates and how this could translate into a possible rise in mortgage payments.”

Mr Sunak’s claim that a Labour government would equate to a £2,000 tax rise for working families dominated the first TV leaders’ debate on 4 June.

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He said this was due to a £38.5bn black hole over four years and the number was worked out by impartial civil servants.

Sir Keir had called the claim “absolute garbage” during the ITV debate on Tuesday, but this was only after Mr Sunak said it repeatedly throughout the show.

The UK Statistics Authority, which safeguards the production and publication of official statistics, has told Sky News it is “looking into” Mr Sunak’s claims.

And according to Sky’s Ed Conway, the figure is actually smaller than the tax rises experienced under the Conservatives since 2019 – which amounts to an average of around £3,000 a year per person.

Last week Full Fact issued its own assessment, saying the £2,000 figure was “not reliable, and is based on a number of assumptions”.

“Many of the costings supporting it are uncertain because details of Labour’s plans are not yet clear,” it said.

“And it’s also a cumulative estimate – so the Conservatives are claiming every working family will pay £2,000 more in taxes over the next four years, rather than annually.”

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Sky News has contacted Labour for comment.

A Conservative Party spokesman said: “Once again Reeves is confusing facts and fiction on numbers.

“Rachel Reeves’ chaotic and panicked dossier is full of complete nonsense and capped off with the extraordinary claim that it will cost the taxpayer £5.7bn to cut the civil service back to pandemic levels.”

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