Narendra Modi: Will coalition turn him into a humbler leader?

Many believe it’s unlikely to be smooth sailing for Mr Modi in a coalition.

The two allies that Mr Modi is most dependent on are two regional parties, Janata Dal (United) and Telugu Desam Party (TDP). They have 28 seats between them. Both are led by veteran, astute leaders – Nitish Kumar and N Chandrababu Naidu, respectively – who have previously served in BJP-led federal coalition governments and then quit over differences with the ruling party, specifically over Mr Modi.

In 2019, while serving as Andhra Pradesh chief minister, Mr Naidu labeled Mr Modi, then his political rival, a “terrorist”, external.

Politics makes for strange bedfellows – India is no stranger to that fact.

Coalition governments dependent on just two or three allies are particularly vulnerable to collapse if even one withdraws support.

Many believe a coalition government under Mr Modi could contribute to a healthier democracy. They say it could reduce the prime minister’s dominance, decentralise governance, increase checks and balances, embolden the opposition, and make institutions like the bureaucracy, judiciary and media more independent.

Atal Behari Vajpayee, one of the BJP’s stalwarts, ran a successful multi-party coalition government from 1998 to 2004. The avuncular leader privatised state-owned firms, facilitated foreign investment, built expressways, relaxed trade barriers, and even ignited an IT revolution.

He ended a decades-old moratorium on nuclear tests, eased tensions with Pakistan and built closer ties with US.

Much of this had to do with Mr Vajpayee’s consensual style.